Brazil Chicken Exports to Mexico Resume Amid Avian Flu
Brazil's chicken exports are expected to rebound, driven by strong demand from the EU and other markets, with the country's strict sanitary measures and efficient supply chain adjustments contributing to its privileged position in the global market. The resumption of trade with Mexico and potential reestablishment of trade with other major importers could lead to a consistent upward movement in international chicken meat prices.
Mexico has eased its ban on chicken imports from Brazil, allowing the resumption of trade while maintaining restrictions on products from the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where a case of bird flu was recently identified. This move is significant for Brazil, which accounts for 40% of global chicken exports and has been experiencing an avian influenza outbreak that has led to falling prices in the wholesale chicken market.
The outbreak has resulted in falling prices for chicken, pork, and beef, with domestic demand expected to weaken in the second half of the month. Retail chains are becoming more cautious in purchasing chicken meat due to falling prices and reduced shipments. However, authorities are closely monitoring the situation, and the government's strict sanitary measures have placed Brazil in a privileged position in the global market.
Despite trade suspensions in 20 markets, including major destinations, Brazil's chicken exports remained near 400 thousand tons in May. The EU demand rose 46% to 24.8 thousand tons, and in the first five months of the year, Brazil exported 2.256 million tons, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, with revenue reaching $4.234 billion, a 10.18% rise. The Brazilian meatpacking industry is advised to store products until export, as the country is expected to resume large-scale exports in less than 20 days.
The current situation highlights the importance of reviewing health protocols and adopting a model that can be used as a reference in bilateral negotiations with other major chicken meat producers. With the outbreak of Newcastle Disease in 2024 providing lessons for the sector, regionalized embargoes could mitigate losses, allowing for a strong export pace to be maintained. As Brazil navigates this challenging period, its position in the global market is likely to remain strong, with trade with major importers potentially resuming quickly.