Global Jobs Outlook Revised Downward Amid Trade Tensions, 53 Million New Jobs
The decline in job growth forecast is expected to have far-reaching consequences, with millions of jobs at risk due to trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for urgent action to stabilize the global economy and promote job creation.
The International Labour Organization has reduced its global job growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5%, predicting 53 million new jobs, a decrease of 7 million from its previous estimate, due to a worsening economic outlook and trade tensions. This decline is attributed to ongoing conflicts, geo-economic realignments, and trade-related disruptions, which have led to a lowering of the economic growth prediction to 2.8% from 3.2%.
The ILO warns that jobs linked to US consumer demand, particularly in Canada and Mexico, are at risk of disruption, with nearly 84 million jobs across 71 countries vulnerable to the impact of tariffs. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to be heavily affected, with 56 million jobs at risk, while Canada and Mexico are expected to see 13 million jobs impacted. The agency's Director-General, Gilbert F. Houngbo, cautioned that continued geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions could have negative effects on labour markets worldwide.
The United Nations predicts that 7 million new jobs will evaporate this year due to the economic slowdown triggered by the US-China trade war. The ILO's revised forecast is based on the International Monetary Fund's revised global GDP growth forecast of 2.8% this year, down from 3.2%. The agency's director general states that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than anticipated, and ongoing trade disruptions will have negative ripple effects on labor markets worldwide.
The ILO's downward revision of its global job growth forecast highlights the need for governments and policymakers to address the ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that are impacting the global economy and labor markets. As the global economy continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor the situation closely and take proactive measures to mitigate the negative effects on jobs and economic growth.