India Restricts Chenab River Water Flow to Pakistan
The water shortage is expected to have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan's economy and food security, with potential impacts on inflation, crop yields, and rural livelihoods. The situation highlights the need for effective water management and cooperation between India and Pakistan to address the shared challenges of the Indus River basin.
Pakistan's agricultural sector is bracing for a significant impact as India has restricted water flow to the country via the Chenab river, following the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, potentially causing food shortages and economic instability in rural areas.
The suspension of the treaty allows India to regulate water releases from Jammu's Baglihar and Salal hydroelectric dams, causing a significant drop in water levels. This move is expected to result in a 21% water shortage during the Kharif season, which will likely lead to lower crop yields and food shortages. The agricultural sector is a vital part of Pakistan's economy, contributing 23% to the national income and supporting 68% of its rural inhabitants.
Pakistan already faces critical water management issues, including groundwater depletion, salinization of agricultural lands, and limited water storage capacity. The country's water storage capacity is low, with major dams having a combined live storage of only about 14.4 MAF, which is just 10% of Pakistan's annual water share under the treaty. The suspension of the treaty exacerbates these vulnerabilities by cutting off a guaranteed water supply, leaving Pakistan with fewer options to manage its water needs.
The restriction of water supply by India will also impact Pakistan's inflation, which has been declining for several months, hitting low double digits in February. The reduced water supply will show its effect on the Kharif output, which can spike inflation once again. Furthermore, the move is expected to impact Pakistan's domestic water wars, as people in the Sindh province have been protesting against a project aimed to divert Indus river water in Punjab, which would decrease the downstream supply to Sindh.
The Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) advisory committee has expressed concern over the sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows, which it attributed to India's reduction in water supply. The situation is being monitored daily, and the IRSA advisory panel has declared an overall shortage of 21% for the remaining early Kharif season.