Amit Shah Faces Water War Amid India-Pakistan Tensions
As tensions escalate, the region's agriculture and hydropower sectors are likely to bear the brunt, with significant implications for the economy and food security. The international community must urge restraint and encourage dialogue to prevent further escalation and find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has raised concerns about the potential for water to be used as a weapon against Pakistan, with experts warning of significant implications for the region's agriculture and hydropower.
The 1960 treaty allocated the three eastern rivers to India and 80% of the western ones to Pakistan, but disputes over India's hydropower and water infrastructure projects have flared in the past. India's push to review and modify the treaty, citing changing needs due to climate change, has been met with resistance from Pakistan, which objects to projects that could reduce river flows and violate the treaty.
The suspension of the treaty means India can now modify existing infrastructure or build new ones to hold back or divert more water without informing Pakistan. However, experts say India lacks the infrastructure to hold back tens of billions of cubic meters of water from the western rivers during high-flow periods, and the country would risk flooding its own territory if it were to "weaponise" water against Pakistan.
The situation is volatile, with a low level of trust and high emotions fueled by irresponsible rhetoric, increasing the risk of miscalculations. Both governments should exercise maximum restraint, as another war is unaffordable. The Indian government should share evidence of Pakistan's alleged involvement in the Pahalgam tragedy, and if none is provided, the perception of using Pakistan as a scapegoat for security failures will strengthen.
The Kashmir issue must be addressed for peace to be achieved, and the international community should encourage both countries to engage in dialogue and find a peaceful resolution to the crisis. The US decline to answer questions on whether it might try to mediate on Kashmir has added to the uncertainty, and it remains to be seen how the situation will unfold in the coming days.