Petrol Price Forecast: Steady in 2025, But Uncertainties Ahead
The EIA's latest short-term energy outlook provides quarterly projections for diesel prices, with the first quarter of 2025 expected to average $3.65 per gallon, decreasing to $3.59 per gallon in the second quarter, and increasing to $3.72 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026, with 48% of the total diesel price going towards crude oil costs.
Gasoline prices are expected to remain steady in 2025, with an average retail price of $3.20/gal, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), but analysts warn of potential fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.
The EIA forecasts a drop in gasoline prices for 2025 and 2026, attributing the decrease to fuel efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet, which have outpaced growth in driving activity since 2019. As a result, the EIA predicts a 4% decrease in US motor gasoline consumption in 2025 and a 5% decrease in 2026 compared to 2019 levels. Analysts predict prices will continue to fluctuate due to supply-demand imbalances, refining capacity expansions, and geopolitical events.
Long-term forecasts from Wallet Investor predict RBOB gasoline will trade between $2.30 and $2.87/gal in 2027, $2.45 and $3.02/gal in 2028, and $2.60 to $3.16/gal in 2029. The trend is expected to continue in 2030, with prices potentially ranging from $2.73 to $2.75/gal. The current US regular gasoline price, as of February 20, is $3.165 per gallon, according to the AAA Fuel Prices website.
While the forecasted decrease in gasoline prices may bring relief to consumers, analysts caution that the market remains volatile, and prices can change rapidly in response to global events. As such, it is essential to continue monitoring the situation and adjusting predictions accordingly.
