Toilet Paper Shortage Looms Amid US Tariffs on Pulp Exports
The potential shortage of toilet paper in the US has sparked concerns among consumers and industry experts, with some warning of a repeat of the 2020 pandemic panic, and others predicting a broader economic impact, including layoffs and a recession, as the trade dispute continues to escalate.
A 20% drop in US-bound pulp exports from Brazil's Suzano has sparked concerns of a potential toilet paper shortage in the US, as the company passes on increased costs to buyers due to Trump's tariffs, warning of worsening supply chain tensions and higher prices.
The pulp industry is already feeling the effects of the tariffs, with Suzano's shares tumbling 4.3% during trading, and executives citing uncertainty in contract negotiations and pricing, as the entire industry enters a phase of instability. Other global suppliers have also flagged the potential for a shortage if the tariff fight escalates, highlighting the risk that trade disputes are now ensnaring basic commodities critical to everyday life.
The tariffs, imposed on Brazil and other countries excluding China, have disrupted shipments of a key material used in making toilet paper and other hygiene products. Industry analysts say it wouldn't take much to trigger renewed instability in the paper supply chain, especially if US buyers begin stockpiling in anticipation of further trade disruptions. This could lead to a scenario similar to 2020, when pandemic-related logistics snarls caused a shortage of toilet paper in the US.
As the situation continues to unfold, suppliers and industry experts are warning of the potential consequences of a prolonged trade dispute, including empty shelves, layoffs, and a recession by summer 2025. The impact of the tariffs on the pulp industry and the potential for a toilet paper shortage serves as a reminder of the far-reaching effects of trade policies on everyday life.