Labour Faces Challenge in Runcorn By-Election, Reform UK Gains Momentum Among Labour Voters
The Runcorn and Helsby by-election has become a battleground for Labour and Reform UK, with both parties vying for the support of labour voters and those who are dissatisfied with the current government's stance on immigration, the result of which will be a crucial test for Labour's ability to hold on to its traditional strongholds.
Labour is struggling to maintain its grip on the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, a seat the party won with a significant majority just 10 months ago, as Reform UK gains momentum among voters, particularly those from the labour sector who are dissatisfied with Labour's stance on immigration.
The Britain Predicts model predicts a close contest between Labour and Reform UK, with Labour expected to win with 36% of the vote, followed closely by Reform UK with 35%. The margin is narrow, and Reform UK's reliance on voters with an unreliable history of voting means that their vote share could vary significantly. The model predicts a turnout of 55-68% and a range of 23,000-29,000 votes cast.
Reform UK's candidate, Sarah Pochin, is seen as a more moderate alternative, having hosted a welcome event for Syrian and Afghan refugees in the past. The party's moderate stance and Nigel Farage's popularity have attracted a diverse coalition of voters, including workers and those who are workless. However, not all voters are convinced by Reform UK's message, with some viewing the party as untrustworthy.
The byelection is expected to be closely fought, with turnout expected to be 15-20% lower than usual. Labour's ability to get out its vote and Reform UK's success in convincing voters that they are the better alternative will be crucial in determining the outcome. The party's candidate, Karen Shore, has faced criticism for pledging to close Daresbury Park, a hotel housing asylum seekers, which was seen as a callous and indefensible tactic.
The outcome of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election will have significant implications for Labour, which is also expected to struggle in other upcoming elections, including the first combined Hull & East Yorkshire mayoral election and in Doncaster, where it won with a 10,000 majority four years ago.