Benjamin Netanyahu Faces Crisis as Ultra-Orthodox Party Quits
As the situation unfolds, Netanyahu's government is facing a delicate balancing act, trying to appease the ultra-Orthodox parties while maintaining its parliamentary majority. The prime minister's gamble is that the Haredi bluff will not be called, and the parties will use the threat of exit as leverage to negotiate concessions, but the outcome remains uncertain.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is facing uncertainty after the Israeli ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism (UTJ) quit the coalition over a dispute on mandatory military service, leaving Netanyahu with a razor-thin majority of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
The decision was made due to a long-running dispute over the conscription bill, which the ultra-Orthodox parties argue was a key promise in their agreement to join the coalition in 2022. The Israeli Supreme Court had ordered the Defense Ministry to end exemptions for ultra-Orthodox seminary students from conscription last year. UTJ's resignation has put Netanyahu's government at risk of losing its majority, with another ultra-Orthodox party, Shas, potentially following suit.
Shas faces a more complex political calculus than UTJ, as it is reluctant to relinquish its ministerial portfolios, which enable it to make rabbinical appointments nationwide and are crucial to its long-term political infrastructure. The party's voter base is more ideologically mixed than UTJ's, attracting many traditional and even secular voters, particularly from Israel's geographic periphery, who serve in the army and are far less likely to support triggering early elections over the yeshiva draft issue.
The crisis has been fueled by the coalition's failure to advance a law enshrining blanket draft exemptions for yeshiva students, despite a High Court ruling. Ultra-Orthodox rabbis have become more vocal and uncompromising, pushing their political representatives to take a stand. The opposition is also waiting in the wings, ready to pounce if the government collapses, but it is unlikely that the Haredi parties will break ranks and align with the opposition.
The timing of the crisis may work in Netanyahu's favor, as the Knesset is set to recess on July 27 for a three-month break, giving the prime minister time to try to resolve the crisis behind closed doors. However, the crisis is expected to continue, with the ultra-Orthodox parties threatening to dissolve the Knesset if no agreement on a new draft law is reached by the start of the Knesset's winter session in October.